IRLF 


37D 


GIFT  OF 


8061' 12 


LATEST  ADVANCES  IN  WEATHER  FORECAST 

ING  AT  A  LONG  RANGE  BY  SUNSPOTS 

AND  PLANETARY  POSITIONS 


JEROME  S.  RICARD,  S.  J. 


Reprinted  from  Popular  Astronomy,  Vol.  XXl^  No.  3 
March,  1913 


LATEST   ADVANCES   IN  WEATHER  FORECASTING 

AT  A  LONG  RANGE  BY   SUNSPOTS  AND 

PLANETARY    POSITIONS. 


JEROME  S.  RICARD,  S.  J.» 

The  sunspot  is  not  yet  fully  understood,  nor  is  meteorology,  nor 
planetary  influence,  nor  electromagnetism.  However  much  we  may 
imagine  we  know  about  these  subjects,  no  well-trained  mind  can  deny 
that  much  more  remains  to  be  learned.  Hence  we  do  not  feel  disposed 
to  agree  with  those  who  say  these  fields  have  been  investigated  and 
found  wanting  so  much  that  our  knowledge  of  the  causes  of  phenomena 
remains  in  the  statu  quo  of  the  old  ignorance.  Much  more  is  now 
known  of  the  sunspot  than,  say,  ten  years  ago,  thanks  to  Dr.  Hale  of 
Mt.  Wilson  and  his  devoted  and  learned  staff,  not  to  mention  others  in 
and  out  of  the  United  States.  Meteorology,  too,  has  advanced  to  a 
knowledge  of  causes  undreamt  of  before,  and  our  wireless  systems  of 
telegraphy  have  opened  new  avenues  of  indefinite  progress.  Planetary 
influence  on  both  sun  and  earth  has  been  subjected  to  rigid  tests  and 
marvelous  results  have  been  obtained. 

Hence  it  were  but  little  surprise  if  at  no  distant  date,  there  were  a 
complete  turning  of  tables.  The  very  men,  who  had  been,  as  it  were, 
relegated  to  an  obscure  corner  and  belittled  as  aspirants  to  scientific 
treasures  beyond  reach,  will  be  the  very  ones  that  a  grateful  posterity 
will  hail  as  benefactors  of  the  race.  We  have  special  reference  to 
such  "painstaking  students  of  nature  as  have  spent  from  ten  to  fifty 
years  of  their  useful  lives  in  tracing  the  complicated  phenomena  of 
astronomy,  meteorology,  seismology  and  biology  to  their  proximate  and 
ultimate  causes,  and  yet  have  been  so  modest  as  to  avoid  self-assertion 
and  even  publicity  during  the  experimental  period  of  their  proceedings. 
Not  only  is  the  sunspot  now  better  known  in  itself,  but  also  in  its 
relation  to  aero-physics,  the  jealous  department  where  every  man  is 
wiser  than  his  neighbor  and  the  mixed  up  total  of  individual  wisdoms, 
if  only  photographed,  might  be  exhibited  as  the  picture  of  general 
unknowableness.  The  modest  quota  contributed  by  the  Santa  Clara 
Observatory  may  be  described  as  follows:— 

As  long  as  the  period  of  maximum  frequency  of  sunspots  lasted,  a 
desire  for  simplicity  of  view  and  result  dictated  that  we  should  confine 
ourselves  to  a  study  of  the  western  limb,  which  had  at  first  attracted 

*  Director  of  the  Observatory,  University  of  Santa  Clara,  California. 


267000 


Latest  Advances  in.  Weather  Forecasting 


our  attention  as  the  scene  of  coincidences  between  disturbances  on  the 
sun  and  disturbances  on  the  earth.  As  a  result  of  a  simple  but  very 
direct  investigation,  which  we  have  carried  on  uninterruptedly  since  the 
year  1900,  when  an  8-inch  equatorial  was  installed,  the  3-day  law  concern- 
ing the  western  limb  was  found  to  hold  generally  and  in  consequence  we 
published  it.  Of  this  article  in  POPULAR  ASTRONOMY  April  1911,  1100 
copies  were  ordered  by  W.  T.  Foster  of  Washington  for  free  distribution 
among  friends,  including  astronomers  and  meteorologists  of  note, 
and  a  translation  into  French  was  made  by  Jean  Mascart  then  of 
the  Observatory  of  Paris,  now  Director  of  the  Observatory  of  Lyons. 

At  that  epoch  of  our  pioneering,  it  sounded  passing  strange  that  the 
western  limb  should  thus  appear  to  be  in  direct  communication  with 
the  western  coast  of  the  United  States  in  preference  to  any  other  coast 
that  we  had  knowledge  of.  And  it  was  only  natural  that  certain 
reflecting  minds  should  put  in  a  demurrer  to  what  they  called  a  theory, 
and  we  called  a  fact  of  observation,  which  we  could  not  explain  and 
did  not  care  to  explain  so  long  as  the  fact  stood.  Meanwhile  time  went 
on  and,  to  our  great  discomfort,  the  period  of  minimum  frequency  set 
in.  We  had  been  using  the  3-day  law,  had  tested  it  in  every  kind  of 
way  by  issuing  forecasts  which,  all  in  all,  held  for  semi-monthly  periods. 

But  during  this  time  of  minimum  frequency  there  were  not,  except 
very  seldom,  any  visible  spots  that  we  could  with  any  degree  of  certainty 
locate  as  having  to  be  at  some  future  time,  within  three  days  dist- 
ance from  the  western  limb.  Sometimes  there  were  no  spots  at  all;  at 
other  times,  they  were  mere  vanishing  apparitions  and  so,  on  the  whole, 
it  looked  as  a  complete  denudation  of  the  solar  surface.  And  yet  we 
sorely  wanted  some  sort  of  sun  trouble  in  order  to  forecast  disturbances 
on  the  earth.  Past  observation  came  to  our  rescue;  we  had  often 
noticed  that  faculae  could  be  fairly  well  descried  on  the  eastern  limb, 
which  on  the  way  across,  became  lost  in  the  effulgence  of  central  light 
and  finally  recovered  visibility  within  45°  or  50°  from  the  western 
limb.  We  had  noticed,  too,  as  had  other  observers  often  before,  that 
the  so-called  dark  spots  underwent  every  kind  of  change  in  the  midst  of 
facular  fields.  They  would  leap  into  view  suddenly;  become  drowned 
the  next  day;  and  then  float  again  the  following  day.  Witness  the  little 
spot  in  the  faculae  of  October  20,  1912. 

We  therefore  arrived  at  the  conclusion  that  a  solar  disturbance,  once 
started,  would  continue  until  it  was  supplanted  by  a  new  one,  or  until 
it  got  a  new  lease  of  life  from  a  new  cause  that  came  into  play,  thus 
making  the  old  focus  of  disturbance  the  seat  of  the  new  one.  Nodon 
of  the  astronomical  society  of  Bordeaux  had  noticed  the  same  thing. 
However  it  would  cost  nothing  to  experiment,  and  note  the  results  and 
observe  what  help  it  might  bring  to  the  forecaster. 


Jerome  S.  Ricard,  S.  J. 


The  experiment  has  so  far  proved  a  great  success,  the  reality  having 
always  corresponded  to  anticipation  and  this  not  only  with  regard  to 
the  western  limb,  but  the  eastern  limb  also  and  the  central  meridian 
both  in  front  and  in  back.  By  this  new  discovery  the  task  of  forecasting 
earth's  weather  by  the  sun's  weather,  if  the  expression  be  allowed, 
becomes  mere  child's  play  and  the  weatherman  can  plunge  as  deeply 
into  the  future  as  prudence  may  dictate.  There  will  always  be  difficulties 
from  new  disturbances  on  the  sun,  which  might  occur  so  far  out  of  place 
as  to  upset  the  previous  calculations.  Hitherto  our  limit  of  forecasting 
has  been  one  month,  during  which,  and  especially  at  the  end  of  which, 
failure  or  success  is  carefully  ascertained  from  the  weather  map.  If 
any  slips  have  occurred,  an  investigation  immediately  follows  and  it 
shows  constantly  that  one  solar  disturbance  had  been  overlooked  or 
another  had  set  in  out  of  harmony  with  the  one  or  the  ones  that  had 
been  used  as  bases  of  calculation.  But  what  is  worthy  of  note  in  this 
connection,  is  that  a  recalculation,  by  the  3-day  law  applied  universally, 
based  on  the  omitted  spot  or  the  new  one,  brings  a  result  that  is  entirely 
in  harmony  with  the  dates  of  the  real  meteorological  events  of  the  past 
month. 


AN  ISOMETRIC  PROJECTION  OF  THE  SUN 

Showing  the  group  of  August  8,  1910  in  front  and   back,  illustrating   the 
method  of  forecasting  siesmic  and  meteorological  disturbances  by  the 
experimental  theory  of  position.    (Courtesy  of  Dr.  A.  Porta,  associate 
observer,  University  of  Santa  Clara,  Calif.) 


Latest  Advances  in  Weather  Forecasting 


To  put  the  whole  process  in  a  nutshell:  Observe  the  sun.  If  you  see 
a  spot  or  a  facula,  find  its  heliographic  latitude  and  longitude,  taking 
Central  Meridian  as  the  zero  line.  Roughly  speaking,  a  spot  takes  twelve 
and  one  half  days  to  go  from  limb  to  limb  in  front  and  a  little  over 
fourteen  days  from  limb  to  limb  in  back  (Synodic  period).  Or, 
to  state  the  fact  more  pointedly,  it  takes  six  and  one  fourth  days 
from  eastern  limb  to  Central  Meridian  on  this  side,  six  and  one  fourth 
more  days  from  Central  Meridian  on  this  side  to  western  limb,  then 
seven  days  from  the  western  limb  to  Central  Meridian  on  the  other  side 
and  finally  seven  more  days  from  there  back  to  eastern  limb,  traveling 
at  the  rate  of  14.4  degrees  a  day.  The  longitude  of  the  spot  converted  into 
days  and  combined  with  its  rate  of  motion  will  tell  at  once  what  day 
of  the  month  the  spot  will  be  three  days  distant  from  Central  Meridian 
this  side  or  that  and  from  both  limbs.  The  dates  thus  obtained  may  be 
set  down  for  the  appearance  of  new  areas  of  low  pressure,  or  storms,  on 
the  westernmost  part  of  the  Pacific  Slope,  Washington,  Oregon,  California, 
Arizona.  Further  investigation  of  the  most  delicate  kind,  promises  to 
show  how  the  observed  latitude  of  the  spot  may  be  utilized  for  telling 
approximately  where  the  storm  will  strike. 

A  few  examples,  not  imaginary,  but  of  actual  observation,  will  make 
the  calculation  of  stormy  periods  clear. 

EXAMPLE   I. 

On  Oct.  17,  1912,  a  facula  stood  one  day  in.  Hence  it  stood  on 

Central  front Oct.  22^4 

Westernlimb "  2SV2 

Central  back Nov.  4V2 

Eastern  limb ll1/^ 

Central  front "  *  1794 

Westernlimb "  24 

Central  back  Dec.  1 

Eastern  limb "  8 

Subtracting  3  from  each  one  of  these  dates,  we  get  the  following 
stormy  periods  for  this  coast: — 

Oct.     19V4  to  22V4 

"       25V2  to  28V2 

Nov.     1V2  to    4V2 

8V2  to  11V2 

14%  to  17% 

"       21      to  24 

28      to  Dec.  1 
Dec.      5      to    8 


Jerome  S.  Ricard,  S.  J. 


EXAMPLE    II. 
On  Oct.  20,  another  facula  was  \l/2  days  in.  We  have  therefore: 

Central  front  ............  Oct.  24% 

Western  limb  ............     "  31 

Central  back    ............  Nov.  7 

Eastern  limb    ............  14 

Central  front  ............     "  201/4 

Western  limb  ............     "  261/2 

Central  back    ............  Dec.  3V2 

Eastern  limb    ............     "  10V2 

Proceeding  as  in  Ex.  I,  we  get  the  following  stormy  periods:  — 

Oct.  21%  to  24% 

"  28      to  31 

Nov.  4      to    7 

"  11       to  14 

"  m/4  to  20^4 

"  23V2  to  26V2 

"  30V2  to  Dec.  3V2 

Dec.  7V2  to  10V2 

EXAMPLE    II. 

Also  on  Oct.  17,  the  facula  of  Oct.  14  stood  \Vi  days  from  western 
limb.    Hence:  — 

Western  limb  ............  Oct.    18V£ 

Central  back  ............     "      25M? 

Eastern  limb  ............  Nov.    ll/2 

Central  front  ............     "       7% 

Western  limb  ............  14 

Central  back  ............     "      21 

Eastern  limb  ...........  .     "      28 

Central  front  ..........  ..  Dec.    4^4 

Western  limb  .......  .....     " 


Operating  as  above  we  have  for  the  stormy  periods:  — 
Oct.    22V2  to  25V2 

"       29  V2  to  Nov.  V/2 
Nov.     4%  to     7% 
"       11     to  14 
"       18     to  21 
41      25     to  28 
Dec.      1V4  to     4V4 
8     to  11V4 


6  Latest  Advances  in  Weather  Forecasting 


In  examples  II  and  III,  the  faculae  stand  in  such  favorable  positions 
that  the  results  sensibly  agree.  Example  I  stands  for  separate  storms. 
Accordingly  in  our  forecast  for  November  published  on  October  30, 
prominence  is  given  to  the  periods  based  on  faculae  of  October  14  and 
20,  while  attention  is  also  called  to  November  1,  8,  14,  21,  28,  December 
5,  for  either  the  augmenting  of  already  extant  warm  waves  or  the 
approach  of  new  ones,  as  per  example  I.  A  magnificent  verification  is 
just  now  going  on,  this  being  November  5,  1912.  If  there  was  only  one 
facula  or  spot  doing  service  for  twenty-seven  days,  there  would  be  only 
four  storms  during  that  time.  But  if  there  were  several,  either  they 
would  happen  in  critical  positions  or  not;  in  the  first  case,  the  storms 
would  coincide  and  intensify  each  other  both  in  depth  and  area;  in  the 
second,  they  would  be  separate  and  one  follow  on  the  heels  of  the 
other  at  distances  of  1,  2,  3  days.  * 


*  The  forecasts  of  Ex.  I,  II,  III  were  from  30  to  40  days  in  advance.  They  were 
a  strange  novelty  to  us,  requiring  careful  combination  and  segregation.  The  oppor- 
tunity was  thereby  offered  of  making  a  rare  test  and  the  result  has  been  watched 
with  anxious  care.  At  the  present  date,  January  22,  1913,  in  compliance  with  a 
request  from  POPULAR  ASTRONOMY,  we  append,  in  parallel  columns,  first,  a  list  of  the 
real  storms,  as  found  in  the  official  weather  chart  of  the  U.  S.,  which  occurred  from 
October  19  to  December  5,  1912,  and,  second,  a  list  of  dates  announced  from  mere 
solar  observation  covering  the  same  period,  The  agreement  between  reality  and 
prognostication  appears  to  be  so  exact  that  the  error  if  any  is  either  negligible  or 
explicable.  It  all  seems  a  great  triumph  for  sunspots  and  likewise  for  planetary 
meteorology,  since  the  planets  are  successfully  used  in  getting  the  same  dates  quite 
independently  and  also  in  forecasting  solar  disturbances. 

EXAMPLES  I,  II,  III,  COMBINED  AND  ORDERED. 
The  Weather  Map  By  Sunspots 

Oct.    19  -  23  Oct.  19  -  22 

"      24-26  «  25-28 

"      28-30  -  28-31 

Nov.    1  -    3  Nov.  1  -    4 

"5-7  4-7 

"8-9  -8-11 

"      H-15  ••  11-14 

"       18-20  ••  18-21 

"      20-21  »  21-24 

"      25  -  27  »  25  -  28 

"      27  -  28  ••  28  -  Dec.  1 

"      28  -  Dec.  3V2  "  30  -  Dec.  3 

Dec.     5-8  Bee.  5^8 
The  above  cannot  be  mere  coincidence,  far  less  guesswork. 


Jerome  S.  Ricard,  S.  J. 


The  result  of  the  new  experience  briefly  amounts  to  this: — 

There  are  in  all  four  critical  positions:  three  days  before  the  spot 
reaches  the  western  limb;  three  days  before  the  spot  reaches  the  Central 
Meridian  in  back;  three  days  before  the  spot  reaches  the  eastern  limb; 
three  days  before  the  spot  reaches  the  Central  Meridian  in  front. 
We  mean  to  say  that  when  a  solar  disturbance  reaches  any  one  of 
these  four  positions,  a  new  storm  arrives  on  the  Pacific  Coast,  either 
rising  from  the  ocean  directly  or  descending  from  Alaska  or  ascending 
from  the  mouth  of  the  Colorado  in  Baja  California. 

The  anomaly  of  Western  limb  being  alone  responsible  for  storms  on 
this  Coast  and  thence  over  the  whole  or  part  of  the  United  States,  is 
thus  removed  and  we  have  instead  one  harmonious  whole  governed  by 
the  three-day  law.  This  great  fact  is  the  solid  foundation  on  which 
rests  the  claim,  made  by  a  respectable  number  of  serious  scientists,  that 
the  connecting  link — the  causa  intermedia — between  sun  and  planets 
is  electromagnetism,  which,  while  knowing  no  distinction  between  front 
and  back,  has  its  own  peculiar  laws  of  action  that  set  at  naught  the 
views  of  the  uninitiated.  With  a  view  to  remove  a  number  of  well- 
meant  difficulties,  we  beg  leave  to  offer  the  following  remarks: — 

The  idea  that  a  sunspot  is  a  cosmic  cause,  the  effect  of  which,  if  any, 
must  be  equally  distributed  throughout  the  whole  earth,  is  adhered  to 
with  the  greatest  tenacity.  It  is,  as  it  were,  the  rostrum  from  which 
certain  otherwise  very  estimable  writers  deliver  their  elegant  sentences 
to  the  admiring  throng  beneath.  Otherwise  stated  the  principle  is  this: 
the  sunspot  is  a  universal  cause;  therefore  its  effect,  if  any,  mast  be 
universal.  Hence  if  it  causes  magnetic  storms,  earthquakes,  aurorae 
atmospheric  upheavals,  these  have  to  cover  the  whole  earth.  But 
as  they  never  do  so,  the  inevitable  conclusion  follows  that  it  has 
nothing  to  do  with  them. 

How  this  idea  got  to  be  so  wide-spread  and  deep-rooted  is  hard  to 
understand.  Possibly  it  may  have  arisen  as  certain  other  popular  errors, 
now  condemned  by  science,  have  arisen;  viz,  we  generally  believe  the 
reports  of  our  senses  even  in  regard  to  objects  which  transcend  their 
capacity  and  we  do  not  pause  long  enough  to  apply  to  them  the  ordin- 
ary criteria  by  which  the  reason  tests  the  data  of  experience.  We  see 
for  instance  how  the  sun  sheds  its  light  wherever  no  obstacle  intervenes; 
we  see,  too,  how  the  sunspot  looks  down  on  the  whole  earth  and  then 
the  unwarranted  conclusion  comes  that  as  the  light  penetrates  every- 
where, so  the  sunspot,  if  at  all  efficient,  must  have  its  effect  visible 
everywhere.  Unfortunately  this  hurried  conclusion  belongs  to  the 
sensible  order  and  deals  with  an  object  with  regard  to  which  the  senses 
may  deceive,  and  should  therefore  be  distrusted  until  the  reason,  after 
due  examination,  approves  of  their  decision.  It  is  to  be  feared  that 


8  Latest  Advances  in  Weather  Forecasting 

otherwise  very  respectable  scientists  may  not  be  careful  enough  to  see 
whether  this  inference  agrees  with  the  findings  of  scientific  observation. 
They  would  thus  be  in  danger  of  accepting  it  too  hastily  as  an  axiom  on 
which  to  base  themselves  while  discussing  the  possibility  or  impossibility 
of  foretelling,  not  only  the  weather  but  also  earthquakes,  from  the 
presence  of  sunspots  in  general  or  in  certain  positions. 

While  personally  we  take  no  special  interest  in  that  so-called  axiom, 
since  our  method  of  forecasting  prescinds  from  it  and  depends 
entirely  on  the  physical  basis  of  observation  and  has  nothing  to  do  with 
the  metaphysics  of  the  case,  yet,  as  we  have  time  and  again  noticed 
that  certain  writers  and  speakers,  whose  turn  of  mind  brings  them  to 
pay  attention  to  the  feeble  attempts  we  have  made  in  forecasting,  show 
an  inclination  to  go  much  more  by  that  axiom  than  by  the  encouraging 
results  so  far  achieved,  we  have  thought  it  worth  while  to  dwell  some- 
what upon  this  matter  and  offer  some  helpful  reflections  that  may  pave 
the  way  to  a  better  understanding. 

First  of  all,  we  could  direct  attention  to  another  and  less  doubtful 
axiom,  namely  that  "Whatever  is  received  follows  the  manner  of  being 
of  the  recipient",  which  is  sufficiently  evident  in  itself  and  the  applica- 
tion of  which  presents  no  difficulty.  Thus  spoke  the  schoolmen.  In 
more  intelligible  language,  we  might  possibly  say.  "The  reception  of 
the  influence  of  a  given  activity  depends  very  much,  sometimes 
entirely,  on  the  form,  nature,  situation  and  disposition  of  the  recipient." 
In  the  light  of  this  axiom,  even  on  the  admission  of  the  universality 
of  solar  causation,  sunspots  included,  it  would  not  follow  that  the 
effect  must  be  everywhere  and  equally  distributed  on  the  whole 
earth,  because  the  receiving  subject  might  not  be  disposed  at 
all  or  very  differently  disposed  in  different  localities.  Those  who 
attribute  every  weather  change  to  purely  local  influences  under  the 
general  agency  of  the  sun,  fully  understand  the  pertinence  and  value  of 
this  remark:  magnetic  and  electrical  conditions,  topography,  altitude, 
air  distribution,  moisture,  present  temperature,  geological  conditions, 
are  all  different.  The  axiom  is  well  recognized  in  physics  in  the  law 
of  cosines  for  radiant  heat  and  the  intensity  of  light.  One  has  only  to 

glance  at  the  formula  I  =  ^  X  cosh  to  see  how  the  reception  of  solar 

radiation  of  both  heat  and  light  is  enormously  affected  by  the  distance 
and  the  angle  of  the  receiving  surface. 

In  the  above  equation,* 
*  Vid.  Ganot's  Physics,  15th  Ed.,  Art.  421;  Young's  Gen.  Astron.  rev.  Ed.,  p.  136. 


Jerome  S.  Ricard,  S.  J. 


I    =  intensity  of  the  effect, 

Q  —  amount  received,   per  unit  area, 

D  =  distance  of  the  cause, 

h  -=  angle  between  impingent  activity  and  the  normal  to  the 

receiving  surface. 

Class-room  formulae,  however,  might  be  questioned  when  transferred 
to  the  immensely  greater  laboratory  of  nature.  For  instance  in  Decem- 
ber the  sun  is  nearly  3,000,000  miles  nearer  to  us  than  in  July.  If 
therefore  a  thermometer  could  be  properly  installed  anywhere  in  our 
latitudes  so  that  the  receiving  surface  was  normal  to  the  incident  ray, 
it  would  be  warmer  in  December  than  in  July.  Of  course,  the  experi- 
ment has  not  been  tried;  but  if  it  were,  we  feel  rather  skeptical  about 
the  result.  At  any  rate,  physical  science  admits  the  axiom  quoted, 
and  this  is  sufficient  for  our  purpose. 

Another  idea  that  should  claim  attention  is  the  fact  that  if,  as  is 
generally  done,  we  suppress  altogether  any  external  influence  except 
the  general  effect  of  the  sun  upon  the  earth,  and  therefore  fall  back 
entirely  upon  mere  local  agencies  for  the  formation  and  advance  of 
storms,  one  is  at  a  loss  to  see  how  particular  agencies  of  a  mere  local 
character  can  account  for  the  transcontinental  and  even  trans-oceanic 
character  of  many  of  our  terrestrial  storms.  For  instance,  how  will  you 
explain  that  a  big  storm  in  the  northwest,  say  west  of  Alaska,  will 
descend  upon  the  States  of  Washington,  Oregon,  California  and  even 
Arizona,  then  cross  over  the  Rocky  Mountains,  the  prairie,  the  Eastern 
States,  plunge  into  the  Atlantic  Ocean  and  finally  invade  Western  Europe, 
unless  we  suppose  similar  agencies  always  of  a  local  character  are  to 
be  found  all  along  the  track  of  the  storm-center  ?  But  an  alignment 
of  such  purely  local  causes,  conspiring  to  give  us  a  storm  of  the 
above-mentioned  sort,  is  not  only  not  likely,  but  is  actually  disproved 
by  the  daily  meteorological  observations  of  the  Weather  Bureau,  taken 
simultaneously  right  along  the  track  of  all  the  storms  that  pass  over 
the  United  States.  The  obvious  inference  is  that  every  storm,  far  from 
being  originated  by  local  influences  or  conditions,  does  itself  originate 
its  own  conditions  and  carries  them  along  with  it.  The  next  inference 
would  seem  to  be  that  a  cosmic  cause,  one  altogether  foreign  or  external 
to  the  earth,  is  the  parent  of  our  atmospheric  disturbances  and  that, 
general  in  character  though  it  may  be,  there  is  some  other  force  in  the 
recipient  than  a  mere  local  affair  which  defines,  particularizes, 
and  localizes  the  Cosmic  force,  in  spite  of  any  universal  character  that 
one  may  be  pleased  to  endow  it  with. 

Hence  one  who  reasons  is  inclined  to  wonder  somewhat  at  the  hasti- 
ness of  those  who  jump  at  conclusions  regarding  matters  so  complex 
and  so  recondite  that  they  have  baffled  the  many  efforts  of  honest  and 


10  Latest  Advances  in  Weather  Forecasting 

laborious  scientists  of  the  present  and  past  centuries.  But  the  wonder- 
ment increases  and  rises  rather  high  when  we  see  such  representatives 
of  science  as  Professors  Lagrange  of  Belgium,  Gockel  of  Germany  and 
Nordmann  of  Paris,  either  openly  or  covertly,  declare  that  sunspots 
being  a  general,  universal,  cosmic  cause,  it  is  futile  to  appeal  to  them 
with  a  view  to  account  for  certain  terrestrial  phenomena,  such  as 
weather  and  earthquakes,  which  are  always  more  or  less  local* 

Relying  on  the  apparently  solid  basis  that  a  universal  cause  must 
needs  have  a  like  effect,  they  gravely  tell  us  that  if,  by  sunspots  or 
what  amounts  to  the  same,  critical  planetary  positions,  it  rains  in 
Portland,  Oregon,  it  should  also  rain  in  Santa  Clara,  Calif.  Or  if  a 
hurricane  rages  at  Acapulco  it  must  also  rage  in  Cuba  and  Porto  Rico. 
The  conclusion  is  forced  beyond  due  limit,  exaggerated,  illogical  to  a 
degree,  so  much  so  as  to  constitute  a  case  of  non  sequitur.  We  are 
not  aware  that  any  trained  meteorologist  or  habitual  observer  of  the 
sun  in  its  various  aspects,  has  ever  dared  go  so  great  a  length. 

In  the  third  place,  it  might  be  urged  that  a  twelve  year  experience 
at  this  observatory  has  traced  an  invariable  connection  .  between  sun- 
spots,  dark  or  brilliant  white,  with  the  advent  of  new  storms  on  the 
Pacific  Coast,  and  that  as  these  storms  are  very  particular  and  definite 
as  to  depth,  area  and  track  it  follows  that  in  virtue  of  the  invariable 
connection  just  mentioned,  either  the  spots  themselves  are  particular 
definite  causes,  or  if  they  are  general  causes,  their  influence  is  defined 
and  particularized  by  some  terrestrial  force  which  is  not  merely  local; 
or,  if  it  be  urged  that  other  storms  are  simultaneously  started  in  other 
parts  of  the  world,  which  a  wider  experience  will  no  doubt  prove  to  be 
true,  yet  each  of  them  is  still  certainly  definite  and  particular  in  depth, 
area  and  track,  and  does  not  cover  the  whole  earth  as  it  is  claimed  it 
should,  if  our  conclusions  are  true.  The  above  is  equally  cogent  if 
applied  to  the  planets  in  certain  definite  positions  which  are  claimed  by 
nearly  all  philosophical  meteorologists  to  be  the  simultaneous  causes  of 
spots  as  disturbances  on  the  sun,  and  of  storms  on  earth  as  disturbances 
in  our  atmosphere. 

Fourthly,  the  sunspots  are  great  centers  of  magnetic  force,  as  shown 
by  the  most  exact  and  delicate  experiments  at  Pasadena,  Calif.,  and  by 
an  entirely  different  method  at  this  observatory.  But  the  field  of  a 
magnet  is  very  different  as  you  pass  around  from  one  pole  to  the  other 
As  the  earth  revolves  and  rotates  in  that  field,  every  different  part  of 
it  must  be  differently  affected.  Add  to  this  the  magnetism  of  the  earth 


*  (Vid— Bulletin  de  la  Societe  Beige  d' Astronomic  No.  3,  1910— Scientific  Amer- 
ican Supplement,  Aug.  17,  1912. -Le  Matin,  Paris,  Sept.  8,  1912.) 


Jerome  S.  Ric'ard.^S.J.  \  \: :' -.  • ',:  >, '  11 

itself  with  its  poles  and  equator  and  the  various  agonic  and  isogonic, 
aclinic  and  isoclinic  lines  which  will  emphasize  the  difference.  Thus, 
then,  the  earth  and  the  sun  with  its  spots  are  two  huge  magnets  and  the 
effects  of  neither  of  them  single  or  combined  are  exactly  the  same 
everywhere;  rather  they  exhibit  so  great  and  so  complex  differences  as 
to  demand  an  extension  of  our  present  knowledge  of  mathematics. 
Now  it  is  well  known  that  the  movement  of  certain  metallic  substances 
in  a  various  and  varying  magnetic  field,  generates  a  various  and  varying 
electric  current,  and  conversely.  It  is  electromagnetism,  to  which,  in 
all  likelihood,  the  variations  of  our  weather  and  seismic  phenomena  are 
mostly  due,  a  theory  supported  by  eminent  meteorologists  of  the  most 
modern  type  and  to  which  we  feel  greatly  inclined  as  the  only  one  that 
stands  examination  and  which,  it  is  to  be  hoped,  every  succeeding  ex- 
periment will  corroborate. 

Thus  then  the  reader  can  see  for  himself  that  the  axiom  under  dis- 
cussion, that  a  universal  cause  has  a  like  effect,  in  the  sense  in  which 
certain  writers  take  it  when  they  naively  tell  us  that  if,  by  sun  spots  it 
rains  in  Athens,  it  must  also  rain  in  Constantinople;  or,  if  there  is  an 
earthquake  in  Patagonia,  the  whole  earth  must  shake,  runs  amuck  with 
physical  science  and  ignores  the  facts  of  electromagnetism  as  demon- 
strated by  Faraday,  Clerk  Maxwell  and  Ampere,  not  to  mention  other 
names  of  undisputed  authority. 

Once  more,  people  seem  to  forget  that  the  sunspot,  dark  or  brilliant 
white,  has  a  sidereal  period  of  a  little  over  twenty-five  days  and  a  syn- 
odic period  of  a  little  over  twenty-seven  days  and  that  its  effectiveness 
is  as  great  on  the  other  side  of  the  sun  as  on  this  side.  This  repeated 
experiment  at  1  his  observatory  has  abundantly  proved,  especially  during 
the  present  period  of  least  frequency.  Once  on  the  field,  the  activity  of 
a  solar  disturbance  lasts  very  long,  very  likely  until  it  is  replaced  by 
another  or  becomes  revivified  by  the  activity  of  some  new  heliocentric 
conjunction  or  opposition,  with  or  without  a  simultaneous  quadrature 
about  the  line  from  Jupiter  to  Saturn.  Further  observation  will  soon 
furnish  a  solution  of  this  last  mooted  point.* 

On  the  other  hand,  it  should  carefully  be  borne  in  mind  that  a  large 
number  of  real  storms,  especially  during  the  summer  of  a  given  locality 
or  country,  will  pass  through  altogether  unnoticed:  invisibly  they  are 
mighty  oscillations  of  the  barometric  curve,  and  sensibly  only  a  hot 
wave.  There  are  no  clouds,  very  little  wind,  no  rain,  no  electric  displays 
and  yet  the  very  substance  of  a  storm  is  passing  over  people's  heads- 
We  would  place  the  essence  of  a  storm  in  a  barometric  change  above 


*  Vid  Nodon,  Bulletin  de  la  Societe  Belgs  d'Astronomia.     Feb.  1912. 


12  Latest  Advances  in  Weather  Forecasting 

and  below  the  semi-diurnal  oscillation.  And  it  may  be  affirmed  without 
fear  of  contradiction  that  there  is  no  place  on  earth  exempt  from  the 
stormy  barometric  change.  Barometrically  speaking,  there  is  no  differ- 
ence or  very  little  difference  between  winter  and  summer;  but  there  is 
always  a  seasonal  difference  in  solar  force,  moisture  and  temperature. 


UNIVERSITY  OF  CALIFORNIA  LIBRARY 


